Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Horses to Watch List ... Part 1

* Untopable (Set an absolutely crazy fast pace last time out and faded to finish 3rd beaten more than 8 lengths as the longest shot in the field. Not pretty recent form, as he's won just one of his last 8 starts - that win coming at 3/5 odds in the slop at Delaware. Expect him to a blitz a field and go wire-to-wire next time out.)


* Eightyfiveinafifty (Joint fastest unblinkered horse at OBS March 2yo sale. Gary Contessa trained 2yo was dismissed at 27/1 odds in his debut because it was a brutally tough race on paper.

Dueled head-to-head with first time blinkered experienced runner Discreetly Mine through screaming fast fractions (109 pace figure) - won the duel, but could only manage a sensational 3rd place finish. Pace rival Discreetly Mine finshed 4th. He removed the blinkers next time out and sailed to a wire-to-wire 6+ length MSW win with an 89 Beyer. Dublin was in 3rd place, 2 lengths back of that sizzling duel between Discreetly Mine and Eightyfiveinafifty - he returned to take the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes on closing day.)


* Spin Master & Garifine (Both exit the 3rd race from August 6th. Spin Master broke a half step slow from the rail post and was sent into a head-to-head duel with a longshot through crazy fast fractions. He got a monster 121 pace figure - the pace rival he dueled with from the start was eased in the stretch and DNF .. while he stayed on to run a great 3rd.

Garifine stumbled at the start, was rushed up, and was just a few lengths in back of that sizzling early pace. Even though he was beaten more than 30 lengths - I thought he ran spectacularly sneaky well. Huge wire-to-wire upset look on the cut-back to 6f next time out .. especially if the race comes up lacking a lot of quality pace.


* Cliff Meadows (Only worse than 3rd one time after a half mile in his last 10 races .. and never more than 5 lengths back in his last 11 races ... he found himself trailing a moderate pace in 9th place while 11 lengths back after a half mile. This was because he got shut off badly and clipped heels just after the start.

Dominguez made a sweeping five wide move on the far turn with him ... and he sustained it surprisingly well to be beaten just 3.5 lengths. Only knock is that he changes barns for the 4th time in four different races ... and unlike his previous 3 trainers ... Dave Jacobson is not winning at better than 20%. In fact, Jacobson is 0-for-30 with turf horses this year... and just 6-for-145 with a $0.63 ROI on turf since he got his license in '07. We want Cliff Meadows once he leaves Jacobson.

* Big Drama (4 races back, he was VERY fractious in the gate in the Preakness and held up start. He went head-to-head with Rachel Alexandra every step of the first five furlongs and stayed on to be beaten just 5.5 lengths.

2 races back, he opened up a 10 length lead through crazy fast fractions after just a half mile in the Wva Derby .. almost won anyway and collapsed from heat exaust on the pathway back to the barn area. In the King's Bishop .. he had to deal with pressing the fastest pace figure of the entire Saratoga meet while 4-to-5 wide through the turn. He was beaten 11 lengths with a close to impossible trip in a race he shouldn't have been entered back in off of short rest. Want to see him get some time off and come back fresh... he's a lot more talented than people think.

* Good Question (Had an impossible trip while 4 wide both turns chasing a very live pace on Aug 29th at Saratoga. Was in 2nd, just 1 lengths off of 1:12.20 six furlong split in a 9 furlong 35K N2L. The very next race, a group of N2X older ALW males at the same distance went 1:13.30 to the 6f split - and the two pace horses in that one (Barcola and RJ's Brigade) both finished off of the board and beaten double digit lengths.

Good Question could have packed it in like 7/2 shot Stratos - who was 3 wide both turns chasing that same pace and wound up beaten 35+ lengths ... but he fought on. Big look on the cut-back to 7fs or a mile.

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