Here's the top 2 for each track and distance at the three major racing circuits.
NYRA:
Belmont:
6f:
98 American Century
96 Funny Cide (first time starter)
7f:
103 Funny Cide
99 Folklore
8f:
103 War Pass
103 First Samurai
8.5f:
107 Tempera
104 Stevie Wonderboy
Turf Routes:
92 Backseat Rhythem
90 2 way tie (Cowboy Cal and Volponi)
Saratoga:
6f:
106 Discreet Cat (first time starter)
105 Henny Hughes
6.5f:
107 You
103 Cuvee
7f:
108 Came Home
103 Sky Mesa
Turf Route:
90 Big Brown (first time starter)
87 Stroll
Aqu:
6f:
105 Forest Heiress
104 Randaroo
6.5f:
101 Quality Road (first time starter)
93 Wollaston Bay
7f:
89 La Tour
88 2 way tie (Justwhistledixie and Maybary's Boy)
8f:
99 Ommadon
99 Break Water Edison
9f:
105 Read the Footnotes
102 Rockport Harbor
Turf Route:
Misesque's Approval (89)
Titan Of Industry (87)
So Cal:
Hollywood Park:
6f:
105 Came Home
104 Plagiarist (first time starter)
6.5f:
99 Ghostzapper (first time starter)
99 El Don
7f:
103 Lion Heart
101 Your Tent or Mine
8.5f:
104 Habibti
104 Siphonic
Turf Routes:
99 Peace Rules
98 Fantastic Filly
Santa Anita:
6f:
108 Werblin
107 Roman Dancer
6.5f:
98 Cindago
97 Soutern Image (first time starter)
7f:
107 Silent Sighs
106 Da Stoops
8f:
105 Flame Thrower
100 Striking Song
8.5f:
102 Ruler's Court
101 Proud Tower
Turf Routes:
102 Peace Rules
93 Donativum
Del Mar:
6f:
103 Bro Lo
102 Siberland
6.5f:
106 Officer
104 What A Song
7f:
107 Declan's Moon
103 Flame Thrower
Turf Routes:
83 Man Among Men
83 Lucien
KENTUCKY
CHURCHILL DOWNS
6f:
103 Lady Tak
99 Betatron
7f:
94 Joint Effort
93 Silver Express
8f:
101 The Cliff's Edge
101 Unbridled Elaine
8.5f:
108 Street Sense
101 Tiz Wonderful
99 2-way tie for 3rd (Rachel Alexandra & Macho Uno, Point Given, Street Cry BC Juvie race)
Turf Route:
95 Sweet Talker
90 Lewis Michael
KEENELAND
6f:
96 Tru Bull
94 Spanish Chestnut (first time starter)
7f
96 Ghost Mountain
96 Hidden Leader
8.5f:
99 Midway Road
98 Eurosilver
Turf Route:
97 Yankee Master
94 Rapid Proof
TURFWAY PARK:
6f:
93 Pro Prado (first time starter)
92 Kadira
6.5f:
100 Lasersport
98 Great Notion
8f:
97 Outofthebox
93 Class Above
8.5f:
90 Repent
88 Parade Clown
Monday, September 28, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Times are changing at big summer meets
The main track at Saratoga was yielding final times much faster than par all through the 2009 meet. One major track record was even shattered when Quality Road won the Amsterdam.
The fastest Beyer figure ever recorded at Saratoga since they've been published in the DRF was a 126 turned in by Will's Way for a nose win over Formal Gold in the '97 Whitney.
The final time was just 1:48.37 ...
Slower than the 1:48.12 turned in by Bullsbay in this years Whitney and the 1:48.29 by Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward.
Here are the final times for the other dirt races on the '97 Whitney card.
Race #1: 35K claimers - 1:54.22 for 9f
Race #2: 2yo filly MSW - 1:14.00 for 6f
Race #3: 3yo & up N2X ALW for fillies and mares - 1:54.00 for 9f
Race #4: Turf Race
Race #5: NY Bred N1X ALW for older males - 1:25.69 for 7f
Race #6: Turf Race
Race #7: Turf Race
Race #8: Whitney Handicap - 1:48.37 for 9f
Race #9: Turf race
The great Skip Away finished 3rd and was beaten 6.5 lengths in that Whitney.
Today, if a horse carried 125lbs and ran a 115 Beyer in the Whitney Handicap ... they would be considered a super horse. In 1997, the trouncing Skip Away took that day played a huge part in why he was defeated by overrated 2yo Favorite Trick in the horse of the year vote.
'97 Whitney 2nd place finisher Formal Gold returned to win both the Iselin and Woodward by 5+ lengths over Skip Away .. and doing so with Beyers of 125, and 124.
Formal Gold retired after the Woodward .. and Skip Away took both the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders Cup Classic by 6 lengths with Formal Gold out of the way.
Former Travers winner Will's Way only ran once more after the Whitney .. he was 3rd to Formal Gold and Skip Away in the Woodward.
Final times were also much faster at Del Mar this year - compared to year #1 of polytrack anyway.
It took Student Council a blistering 2:07.29 to win the inaugural Pacific Classic run over Polytrack in 2007. This years Poly Pac Classic was won by Richard's Kid in a time of 2:02.39. A mere 4.90 full seconds faster.
The fastest Beyer figure ever recorded at Saratoga since they've been published in the DRF was a 126 turned in by Will's Way for a nose win over Formal Gold in the '97 Whitney.
The final time was just 1:48.37 ...
Slower than the 1:48.12 turned in by Bullsbay in this years Whitney and the 1:48.29 by Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward.
Here are the final times for the other dirt races on the '97 Whitney card.
Race #1: 35K claimers - 1:54.22 for 9f
Race #2: 2yo filly MSW - 1:14.00 for 6f
Race #3: 3yo & up N2X ALW for fillies and mares - 1:54.00 for 9f
Race #4: Turf Race
Race #5: NY Bred N1X ALW for older males - 1:25.69 for 7f
Race #6: Turf Race
Race #7: Turf Race
Race #8: Whitney Handicap - 1:48.37 for 9f
Race #9: Turf race
The great Skip Away finished 3rd and was beaten 6.5 lengths in that Whitney.
Today, if a horse carried 125lbs and ran a 115 Beyer in the Whitney Handicap ... they would be considered a super horse. In 1997, the trouncing Skip Away took that day played a huge part in why he was defeated by overrated 2yo Favorite Trick in the horse of the year vote.
'97 Whitney 2nd place finisher Formal Gold returned to win both the Iselin and Woodward by 5+ lengths over Skip Away .. and doing so with Beyers of 125, and 124.
Formal Gold retired after the Woodward .. and Skip Away took both the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders Cup Classic by 6 lengths with Formal Gold out of the way.
Former Travers winner Will's Way only ran once more after the Whitney .. he was 3rd to Formal Gold and Skip Away in the Woodward.
Final times were also much faster at Del Mar this year - compared to year #1 of polytrack anyway.
It took Student Council a blistering 2:07.29 to win the inaugural Pacific Classic run over Polytrack in 2007. This years Poly Pac Classic was won by Richard's Kid in a time of 2:02.39. A mere 4.90 full seconds faster.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Horses to Avoid List Part 1
* Macho Again (Arrived at Saratoga off of a mediocre Grade 1 win in the Foster. His final time that day was 0.16 seconds slower than Miss Isella and Swift Temper went in a similarly paced Grade 2 stake on the same card - at the same distance. I know Miss Isella is a different kind of horse at Churchill and Swift Temper came back to beat Icon Project with a perfect trip next out - but it was still as soft a Grade 1 win as you'll see in the handicap division.
Got a great 116 pace figure to close into when 2nd in the Whitney. In the Woodward, he was more than 15 lengths off of the blistering 22.86 opening quarter .. 8 lengths further back than the horse racing 2nd to last at that stage. In spite of being positioned perfectly and getting a dream run through the pack without looping the field .. he hung badly and never looked like he was going to past a very softened up Rachel Alexandra at any point. He's less than nothing special .. and his resume looks strong off of his last 3 races.
* Mother Russia (Set a legit pace and took a 150K NY stallion stake race in her first try at Saratoga. The 2nd place finisher Es Mia was beaten just a neck and she had failed 4 times prior at the NY Bred MSW level coming in. Es Mia would run 5th at 6/5 odds in a NY Bred MSW next out .. not exactly flattering Mother Russia.
Mother Russia returned to a score a wire-to-wire NY Bred stakes win on the Travers undercard after getting away with murder on an uncontested lead through slow fractions.
* African King (came into Aug 22nd off the turfer as a 5/2 shot having won 3 straight races at 3 different race tracks. Had the race handed to him on a silver platter as he was able to steal away with an easy lead - setting the pace while earning a mind-boggling low 46 pace figure.
The pace was so slow in relation to final time - that I didn't believe it at first. It held up after I hand timed it though. The winner, Bad Action, broke slow & rallied from 4th with a wide sweep to win by 3 lengths. I realize that Bad Action has since won back twice stretching out on the turf - most recently at 15/1 odds. That still doesn't excuse African King for easily losing what amounted to a 3 furlong sprint .. while getting a head start and very favorable tactical position.
* Get Stormy (Two back, he got away with murder on the front end in a a one-mile N1X ALW race for older males. He was always a length to 1.5 lengths in front, while running six furlongs in a pokey 1:13.42. By comparison, NY Bred MSW fillies went 1:13.30 on the same course and at the same distance two races earlier that day. Get Stormy made all the best of the huge tactical edge and exploded with a 21.94 last quarter mile to win by 3 impressive lengths.
Get Stormy returned in the 85K Lure Stakes and once again found himself loose on an uncontested early lead through very slow fractions. Once again, he made the best of the tactical edge and finished with a good burst to hold off Mikoshi by just less than a length.
The problem with Get Stormy is that he has a history of running his best races when he makes a lead ... he's won each of the last 3 times he's led after a 1/4 mile ... he's failed each of the last 6 times he hasn't. He's simply not that quick early on and his run of easy leads is bound to end.
* Unbridled's Heart (Whoever named this horse badly insulted Unbridled ... because this guy has a heart the size of a pea. He entered an Aug 1st ALW race off of 4 straight defeats - each time as the odds on favorite.
This time, he got away loose on an uncontested lead through one of the slower route paces of the whole meet relative to final time .. and still he couldn't cash in - or even manage to save 2nd.
He may have Beyers of 93 or better in five of his six career races .. huge numbers for an N1X horse. He also is exiting Saratoga .. where his trainer is a brutal 11-for-131 with a $1.06 ROI since 2004. However, he's still a heartless money burner who can't cash in on a race he dominates on paper - even with a perfect trip. His trainer Albertrani is 21% with a jaw-dropping $3.99 ROI at Gulfstream since '04 .. so we might revise our opinion on this horse once GP comes .. but as long as he's in New York he's an avoid.
* Just about anything coming out of the Jim Dandy, Sanford, or Ballston Spa not named either Bulls and Bears or Salve Germanica.
Got a great 116 pace figure to close into when 2nd in the Whitney. In the Woodward, he was more than 15 lengths off of the blistering 22.86 opening quarter .. 8 lengths further back than the horse racing 2nd to last at that stage. In spite of being positioned perfectly and getting a dream run through the pack without looping the field .. he hung badly and never looked like he was going to past a very softened up Rachel Alexandra at any point. He's less than nothing special .. and his resume looks strong off of his last 3 races.
* Mother Russia (Set a legit pace and took a 150K NY stallion stake race in her first try at Saratoga. The 2nd place finisher Es Mia was beaten just a neck and she had failed 4 times prior at the NY Bred MSW level coming in. Es Mia would run 5th at 6/5 odds in a NY Bred MSW next out .. not exactly flattering Mother Russia.
Mother Russia returned to a score a wire-to-wire NY Bred stakes win on the Travers undercard after getting away with murder on an uncontested lead through slow fractions.
* African King (came into Aug 22nd off the turfer as a 5/2 shot having won 3 straight races at 3 different race tracks. Had the race handed to him on a silver platter as he was able to steal away with an easy lead - setting the pace while earning a mind-boggling low 46 pace figure.
The pace was so slow in relation to final time - that I didn't believe it at first. It held up after I hand timed it though. The winner, Bad Action, broke slow & rallied from 4th with a wide sweep to win by 3 lengths. I realize that Bad Action has since won back twice stretching out on the turf - most recently at 15/1 odds. That still doesn't excuse African King for easily losing what amounted to a 3 furlong sprint .. while getting a head start and very favorable tactical position.
* Get Stormy (Two back, he got away with murder on the front end in a a one-mile N1X ALW race for older males. He was always a length to 1.5 lengths in front, while running six furlongs in a pokey 1:13.42. By comparison, NY Bred MSW fillies went 1:13.30 on the same course and at the same distance two races earlier that day. Get Stormy made all the best of the huge tactical edge and exploded with a 21.94 last quarter mile to win by 3 impressive lengths.
Get Stormy returned in the 85K Lure Stakes and once again found himself loose on an uncontested early lead through very slow fractions. Once again, he made the best of the tactical edge and finished with a good burst to hold off Mikoshi by just less than a length.
The problem with Get Stormy is that he has a history of running his best races when he makes a lead ... he's won each of the last 3 times he's led after a 1/4 mile ... he's failed each of the last 6 times he hasn't. He's simply not that quick early on and his run of easy leads is bound to end.
* Unbridled's Heart (Whoever named this horse badly insulted Unbridled ... because this guy has a heart the size of a pea. He entered an Aug 1st ALW race off of 4 straight defeats - each time as the odds on favorite.
This time, he got away loose on an uncontested lead through one of the slower route paces of the whole meet relative to final time .. and still he couldn't cash in - or even manage to save 2nd.
He may have Beyers of 93 or better in five of his six career races .. huge numbers for an N1X horse. He also is exiting Saratoga .. where his trainer is a brutal 11-for-131 with a $1.06 ROI since 2004. However, he's still a heartless money burner who can't cash in on a race he dominates on paper - even with a perfect trip. His trainer Albertrani is 21% with a jaw-dropping $3.99 ROI at Gulfstream since '04 .. so we might revise our opinion on this horse once GP comes .. but as long as he's in New York he's an avoid.
* Just about anything coming out of the Jim Dandy, Sanford, or Ballston Spa not named either Bulls and Bears or Salve Germanica.
Horses to Watch List ... Part 1
* Untopable (Set an absolutely crazy fast pace last time out and faded to finish 3rd beaten more than 8 lengths as the longest shot in the field. Not pretty recent form, as he's won just one of his last 8 starts - that win coming at 3/5 odds in the slop at Delaware. Expect him to a blitz a field and go wire-to-wire next time out.)
* Eightyfiveinafifty (Joint fastest unblinkered horse at OBS March 2yo sale. Gary Contessa trained 2yo was dismissed at 27/1 odds in his debut because it was a brutally tough race on paper.
Dueled head-to-head with first time blinkered experienced runner Discreetly Mine through screaming fast fractions (109 pace figure) - won the duel, but could only manage a sensational 3rd place finish. Pace rival Discreetly Mine finshed 4th. He removed the blinkers next time out and sailed to a wire-to-wire 6+ length MSW win with an 89 Beyer. Dublin was in 3rd place, 2 lengths back of that sizzling duel between Discreetly Mine and Eightyfiveinafifty - he returned to take the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes on closing day.)
* Spin Master & Garifine (Both exit the 3rd race from August 6th. Spin Master broke a half step slow from the rail post and was sent into a head-to-head duel with a longshot through crazy fast fractions. He got a monster 121 pace figure - the pace rival he dueled with from the start was eased in the stretch and DNF .. while he stayed on to run a great 3rd.
Garifine stumbled at the start, was rushed up, and was just a few lengths in back of that sizzling early pace. Even though he was beaten more than 30 lengths - I thought he ran spectacularly sneaky well. Huge wire-to-wire upset look on the cut-back to 6f next time out .. especially if the race comes up lacking a lot of quality pace.
* Cliff Meadows (Only worse than 3rd one time after a half mile in his last 10 races .. and never more than 5 lengths back in his last 11 races ... he found himself trailing a moderate pace in 9th place while 11 lengths back after a half mile. This was because he got shut off badly and clipped heels just after the start.
Dominguez made a sweeping five wide move on the far turn with him ... and he sustained it surprisingly well to be beaten just 3.5 lengths. Only knock is that he changes barns for the 4th time in four different races ... and unlike his previous 3 trainers ... Dave Jacobson is not winning at better than 20%. In fact, Jacobson is 0-for-30 with turf horses this year... and just 6-for-145 with a $0.63 ROI on turf since he got his license in '07. We want Cliff Meadows once he leaves Jacobson.
* Big Drama (4 races back, he was VERY fractious in the gate in the Preakness and held up start. He went head-to-head with Rachel Alexandra every step of the first five furlongs and stayed on to be beaten just 5.5 lengths.
2 races back, he opened up a 10 length lead through crazy fast fractions after just a half mile in the Wva Derby .. almost won anyway and collapsed from heat exaust on the pathway back to the barn area. In the King's Bishop .. he had to deal with pressing the fastest pace figure of the entire Saratoga meet while 4-to-5 wide through the turn. He was beaten 11 lengths with a close to impossible trip in a race he shouldn't have been entered back in off of short rest. Want to see him get some time off and come back fresh... he's a lot more talented than people think.
* Good Question (Had an impossible trip while 4 wide both turns chasing a very live pace on Aug 29th at Saratoga. Was in 2nd, just 1 lengths off of 1:12.20 six furlong split in a 9 furlong 35K N2L. The very next race, a group of N2X older ALW males at the same distance went 1:13.30 to the 6f split - and the two pace horses in that one (Barcola and RJ's Brigade) both finished off of the board and beaten double digit lengths.
Good Question could have packed it in like 7/2 shot Stratos - who was 3 wide both turns chasing that same pace and wound up beaten 35+ lengths ... but he fought on. Big look on the cut-back to 7fs or a mile.
* Eightyfiveinafifty (Joint fastest unblinkered horse at OBS March 2yo sale. Gary Contessa trained 2yo was dismissed at 27/1 odds in his debut because it was a brutally tough race on paper.
Dueled head-to-head with first time blinkered experienced runner Discreetly Mine through screaming fast fractions (109 pace figure) - won the duel, but could only manage a sensational 3rd place finish. Pace rival Discreetly Mine finshed 4th. He removed the blinkers next time out and sailed to a wire-to-wire 6+ length MSW win with an 89 Beyer. Dublin was in 3rd place, 2 lengths back of that sizzling duel between Discreetly Mine and Eightyfiveinafifty - he returned to take the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes on closing day.)
* Spin Master & Garifine (Both exit the 3rd race from August 6th. Spin Master broke a half step slow from the rail post and was sent into a head-to-head duel with a longshot through crazy fast fractions. He got a monster 121 pace figure - the pace rival he dueled with from the start was eased in the stretch and DNF .. while he stayed on to run a great 3rd.
Garifine stumbled at the start, was rushed up, and was just a few lengths in back of that sizzling early pace. Even though he was beaten more than 30 lengths - I thought he ran spectacularly sneaky well. Huge wire-to-wire upset look on the cut-back to 6f next time out .. especially if the race comes up lacking a lot of quality pace.
* Cliff Meadows (Only worse than 3rd one time after a half mile in his last 10 races .. and never more than 5 lengths back in his last 11 races ... he found himself trailing a moderate pace in 9th place while 11 lengths back after a half mile. This was because he got shut off badly and clipped heels just after the start.
Dominguez made a sweeping five wide move on the far turn with him ... and he sustained it surprisingly well to be beaten just 3.5 lengths. Only knock is that he changes barns for the 4th time in four different races ... and unlike his previous 3 trainers ... Dave Jacobson is not winning at better than 20%. In fact, Jacobson is 0-for-30 with turf horses this year... and just 6-for-145 with a $0.63 ROI on turf since he got his license in '07. We want Cliff Meadows once he leaves Jacobson.
* Big Drama (4 races back, he was VERY fractious in the gate in the Preakness and held up start. He went head-to-head with Rachel Alexandra every step of the first five furlongs and stayed on to be beaten just 5.5 lengths.
2 races back, he opened up a 10 length lead through crazy fast fractions after just a half mile in the Wva Derby .. almost won anyway and collapsed from heat exaust on the pathway back to the barn area. In the King's Bishop .. he had to deal with pressing the fastest pace figure of the entire Saratoga meet while 4-to-5 wide through the turn. He was beaten 11 lengths with a close to impossible trip in a race he shouldn't have been entered back in off of short rest. Want to see him get some time off and come back fresh... he's a lot more talented than people think.
* Good Question (Had an impossible trip while 4 wide both turns chasing a very live pace on Aug 29th at Saratoga. Was in 2nd, just 1 lengths off of 1:12.20 six furlong split in a 9 furlong 35K N2L. The very next race, a group of N2X older ALW males at the same distance went 1:13.30 to the 6f split - and the two pace horses in that one (Barcola and RJ's Brigade) both finished off of the board and beaten double digit lengths.
Good Question could have packed it in like 7/2 shot Stratos - who was 3 wide both turns chasing that same pace and wound up beaten 35+ lengths ... but he fought on. Big look on the cut-back to 7fs or a mile.
2009 Trainer ROI Leaderboard
Best 2009 ROI by a trainer (minimum of 50 wins)
1st: Lloyd Mason $2.45 ROI (24% wins from 213 starts)
2nd: Tim Kreiser $2.40 ROI (20% wins from 252 starts)
3rd: Dane Kobiskie $2.29 ROI (23% wins from 249 starts)
4th: Linda Rice $2.24 ROI (25% wins from 267 starts)
5th: Doris Harwood $2.21 ROI (23% wins from 227 starts)
6th: Keith Bennett $2.13 ROI (32% wins from 220 starts)
Best 2009 ROI by a trainer (minimum of 500 starts)
Jamie Ness $2.00 ROI (32% wins from 563 starts)
1st: Lloyd Mason $2.45 ROI (24% wins from 213 starts)
2nd: Tim Kreiser $2.40 ROI (20% wins from 252 starts)
3rd: Dane Kobiskie $2.29 ROI (23% wins from 249 starts)
4th: Linda Rice $2.24 ROI (25% wins from 267 starts)
5th: Doris Harwood $2.21 ROI (23% wins from 227 starts)
6th: Keith Bennett $2.13 ROI (32% wins from 220 starts)
Best 2009 ROI by a trainer (minimum of 500 starts)
Jamie Ness $2.00 ROI (32% wins from 563 starts)
2009 Jockey ROI leaderboard
Best 2009 Return On Investment by a jockey (Minimum of 70 winners ridden to qualify)
1st: Eric Camacho $2.53 ROI (26% wins from 287 mounts)
2nd: Jose Vega $2.32 ROI (15% wins from 607 mounts)
3rd: Fernando De La Cruz $2.16 ROI (13% wins from 770 mounts)
4th: Victor Espinoza $2.15 ROI (18% wins from 637 mounts)
5th: Emanuel Cosme $2.13 ROI (22% wins from 408 mounts)
Best 2009 Turf Course ROI (minimum of 30 wins)
1st: Rajiv Maragh $2.42 ROI (16% wins from 318 mounts)
2nd: Jose Lezcano $2.19 ROI (15% wins from 402 mounts)
3rd: Javier Castellano $2.10 ROI (13% wins from 335 mounts)
4th: Kent Desormeaux $2.01 ROI (22% wins from 304 mounts)
5th: Rafael Bejarano $2.01 ROI (22% wins from 227 mounts)
Best Overall ROI with a minimum of 1,000 mounts in 2009
Leandro Goncalves $2.06 ROI (18% wins from 1,006 mounts)
1st: Eric Camacho $2.53 ROI (26% wins from 287 mounts)
2nd: Jose Vega $2.32 ROI (15% wins from 607 mounts)
3rd: Fernando De La Cruz $2.16 ROI (13% wins from 770 mounts)
4th: Victor Espinoza $2.15 ROI (18% wins from 637 mounts)
5th: Emanuel Cosme $2.13 ROI (22% wins from 408 mounts)
Best 2009 Turf Course ROI (minimum of 30 wins)
1st: Rajiv Maragh $2.42 ROI (16% wins from 318 mounts)
2nd: Jose Lezcano $2.19 ROI (15% wins from 402 mounts)
3rd: Javier Castellano $2.10 ROI (13% wins from 335 mounts)
4th: Kent Desormeaux $2.01 ROI (22% wins from 304 mounts)
5th: Rafael Bejarano $2.01 ROI (22% wins from 227 mounts)
Best Overall ROI with a minimum of 1,000 mounts in 2009
Leandro Goncalves $2.06 ROI (18% wins from 1,006 mounts)
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